Live on the Red Line - Real Estate

A Decade of Dramatic Real Estate Developments

At the beginning of the 21st century, most home buyers had never viewed a home online; the three top home sale marketing methods were yard signs, newspaper ads, and open houses; and nearly nine out of 10 buyers financed their purchase with a fixed-rate, 30-year mortgage.

What a difference a decade makes.

“The real estate industry has seen tremendous change and evolution over the past decade,” said NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® President Vicki Cox Golder, owner of Vicki L. Cox & Associates in Tucson, Ariz. “As the first, best source for real estate information, REALTORS® have not only anticipated and adapted to the evolving needs of their clients and customers, but also have influenced industry trends and innovations that will carry us into the future.”

In 1999, buyers who went online in search for a home were in the minority – only 37 percent of buyers used the Internet in their home search, according to data from the NAR Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers. Today, 90 percent of buyers are searching online, and the real estate industry has responded. Sites like REALTOR.com, which attracts nearly 12 million total visits every month, have evolved to gives today’s buyers what they want – not just property listings, but multiple photos, online videos, mapping features, and comprehensive neighborhood information, as well.

Median home values over the past decade have increased more than 25 percent, from $137,600 in November 1999 to $172,600 in November 2009 (the most recent existing-home data available). Fewer people are buying detached, single family homes – 82 percent in 1999 compared to 78 percent in 2009 – but more people are buying homes in suburban neighborhoods – 46 percent in 1999 compared to 54 percent today.

Buyers themselves have also changed. A smaller proportion of married couples are buying homes these days; while married couples comprised 68 percent of all home purchases at the beginning of this century, they represent 60 percent of all buyers today. Single men and women have made up the difference – single men purchased 10 percent of all homes last year, compared to only 7 percent 10 years ago. Single women now represent more than one-fifth of all home buyers – 21 percent, up from 15 percent in 1999.

Other things haven’t changed. The median age for home buyers last year was 39, just as it was in 1999. Neighborhood quality, affordability, and convenience to work and school have consistently been top priorities for both past and present buyers. And eight out of 10 recently surveyed consumers believe that owning a home is an investment in their future.

“REALTORS® have been around for more than 100 years, but one constant during that time has been the persistence of homeownership as the American Dream,” said Golder. “As the first decade of this century comes to a close, NAR stands ready to meet the many challenges and opportunities that lie ahead by helping our REALTORS® members better serve their clients and communities and ensuring that those dreams of homeownership remain possible for all who want to achieve it.”

Source: NAR

Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives Program (HAFA)

On November 30, 2009, the Treasury Department released guidelines and forms for its new Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives Program (HAFA), part of the  Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP).

HAFA provides incentives in connection with a short sale or a deed-in-lieu of foreclosure (DIL) used to avoid foreclosure on a loan eligible for modification under the HAMP program. HAFA applies only to loans not owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, which will issue their own versions of HAFA in coming weeks.

Learn more about HAFA

Government Forms and Guidelines (PDF)

NAR HAFA Program FAQ  (PDF)

“First Look Initiative” Gives Homebuyers a Competitive Edge on Foreclosed Properties

Fannie Mae has introduced a program that now gives homeowners a leg up when bidding on foreclosed properties in its portfolio.

In the past year, there’s been stiff competition on the lower end of the DC housing market, mainly fueled by bank-owned properties. These homes are often located in desirable neighborhoods but are either shells or need work to become livable. They are usually priced aggressively to sell fast. As such, the homes garner a lot of interest from investors, and it’s not unusual for these listings to receive several contracts within the first few days of being listed. In the bidding wars that ensue, traditional home purchase contracts with finance and appraisal contingencies lose out to all-cash, no-contingency contracts from investors. Often, a bank will go with cash buyers even at a significantly lower purchase price because the chances of the contract falling through are far less and the required closing period is shorter. This trend has been the cause of major frustration among homebuyers.

Fannie Mae’s new “First Look” initiative is one of several that help provide some balance to the homebuying process. As part of the Neighborhood Stabilization Program (NSP), the initiative is targeted at owner-occupants and buyers using public funds.“First Look provides owner-occupants and public entities that are committed to the community get an early opportunity to purchase one of Fannie Mae’s Real Estate Owned properties,” says Terry Edwards, Executive Vice President for Credit Portfolio Management at Fannie Mae. “As a result, we believe First Look will help us make progress toward stabilizing neighborhoods and building stronger communities in this difficult market.”

The First Look initiative only allows offers from owner-occupants and buyers using public funds to be considered for the first 15 days that a Fannie Mae-owned home is listed. In investor-saturated markets such as DC, this greatly reduces the competition when bidding for a home, giving homebuyers a better chance at getting their offer accepted. Buyers must act fast though, because after the initial 15 days of being listed, offers from investors may be considered.

In addition to the First Look initiative, buyers using NSP funds may also qualify for several other benefits, including deposit waiver, ability to renegotiate the sales contract after an NSP-required appraisal, and extra time (up to 45 days) for closing. A list of Fannie Mae-owned properties for sale in the DC area can be found here.

by Tim Brown

http://dc.urbanturf.com/articles/blog/fannie_maes_first_look_initiative_gives_homebuyers_a_competitive_edge/1630

Economists' Commentary: Real Estate Forecast for 2010

In all, 4.4 million Americans look to take advantage of the home buyer tax credit before it expires by the middle of next year. From the enactment in February of this year through October, NAR estimates 1.8 million households would have qualified to claim the first-time home buyer tax credit. Now with the tax credit deadline extended till the end of June 2010 (for closings, with contracts signed by the end of April, 2010) and also available to many move-up buyers, an additional 2.6 million families would likely claim the home buyer tax credit.

The expected boost to existing home sales by more than 20 percent in the first half of 2010 from comparable period one year before will sufficiently trim away inventory such that home values will begin to show increases by the middle of next year in many parts of the country. The median existing home price could rise by 2 to 4 percent in 2010. New home sales could jump by nearly 50 percent, though from very depressed levels to figures that would be less than half the pace as during the peak sales year in 2005.

One assumption underlying the home sales forecast is that the mortgage rates will continue to remain at near historically low around 5 percent and not more than 5.5 percent. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to stay high at slightly above 10 percent through the first half of next year, before steadily inching down. Another assumption is that the economy as measured by the GDP continues to expand at nearly 3 percent, thereby laying the foundation for eventual consistent net job gains sometime in the spring of next year.

There was indeed good news on the job front. In November, payroll jobs were reduced by only 11,000. Of course, job cuts are bad, but the momentum of fewer layoffs with each passing month is clearly positive news. Consider this: job cuts averaged 688,000 per month in the first quarter, 512,000 per month in the second quarter, 288,000 per month in the third quarter, and 111,000 in October. In the construction sector, the job loss in November was 27,000, but the pace of cuts has also been diminishing.

The average hours worked by an employee rose in November as well, implying more full-time hours over part-time. Moreover, employment information from households and not from established companies suggests a net job addition. A total of 227,000 jobs were added when based on household survey, thereby nudging the unemployment rate lower to 10.0 percent in November from 10.2 percent in the prior month. Usually, many start-up companies and consultancy jobs are not counted in the company survey data, which explains for the differences between household and company surveys on jobs. So as long as the job momentum moves for the better, the housing market forecast of 20 percent higher sales and stabilizing home values should hold up. An improving housing market and the very important development of home values and housing wealth stabilization will in turn better stimulate economic recovery.

Not all markets are equal, however. Detroit is hemorrhaging with 17 percent unemployment rate. The Washington D.C. area is buffered from so much government spending with the jobless rate at only 6 percent. Even if a bridge is built in Alaska, somehow jobs get created in D.C. Something right is being done in North Dakota with labor shortages and a state budget surplus. Bismark and Fargo have exceptionally low unemployment rates of only 3 percent.

On interest rates, the borrowing rate for a home purchase and refinance on a primary home has never been lower than it is now. The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 4.8 percent in early December. The rates will not move lower than this in 2010. All indications in fact point toward higher rates next year. The Federal Reserve could end the purchase of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in March as currently scheduled, though my guess is that MBS purchases will continue for a bit further, though less aggressively. Even in the absence of the Fed's MBS purchase, mortgage rates will not suddenly rise to alarming levels. At most, mortgage rates will rise to the high fives (5.6 to 5.8 percent). Given global financial market inter-linkages, we need to be mindful that the Australian central bank has already begun to raise its rates and Canada is looking to do the same very soon. The European central bank, though not planning on raising interest rates anytime soon, indicated it is looking to stop its quantitative easing policy and possibly move in reverse very soon. That means that, rather than the central bank buying government and private market bonds out of newly printed money, it plans to mop up excessive cash floating in the system to assure inflation does not suddenly pop out of the bottle. With these developments, the U.S. Federal Reserve will surely have to raise its fed funds rate sometime in the second half of 2010 and stop the purchase of private bonds, including MBSs. Otherwise, the dollar will lose its ground to other currencies and steadily cut into our standard of living here at home.

The very high federal budget deficits could also do us in. After an all-time high of $1.4 trillion in budget deficit in the fiscal year 2009, another trillion dollar deficit is on the card for 2010 and near trillion in 2011 and 2012. A big factor in lessening the deficit is how the economy grows. If the economy expands and leads to robust job creation, then the deficit will be lower than projected. If the economy hits many speed bumps along the way then the deficit will get quite ugly. Therefore, a way to get out of the deficit jam is to promote policies leading to economic growth. But unfortunately, the high deficit could also put focus on ways to raise more tax revenue by chipping away at mortgage interest deduction, property tax deduction, and capital gains tax exclusion on primary residence. This discussion could come alive in 2010 and if it does surface NAR will vigorously defend homeownership policies that have been the very foundation of stable middle-class based democracy, civic participation, and long-term middle class wealth accumulation. Any housing policy leading to unsuccessful homeownership (such as the ones associated with the recent housing bust and foreclosures) should be dropped. But policies that promote responsible and sustainable homeownership have incalculable societal benefits and must be defended. In addition, given that homeowners already pay nearly 90 percent of all federal income taxes, trying to extract more out of homeowners will in the end be counter-productive economically and politically.

http://www.realtor.org/research/economists_outlook/commentaries/forecast1209

By Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist @ NAR

Financial Benefits of Home Ownership

There are a number of personal and emotional reasons to buy a home. But there are also some strong financial reasons to make the investment. In addition to exceptional home affordability and near historic interest rates, here are some important financial benefits of owning a home:

Increased Net Worth: Few things have a greater impact on net worth than owning a home. In a comparison of renters versus homeowners, the Federal Reserve Board of Consumer Finance found that the average net worth of renters was just $4,000 compared to homeowners at $184,400.

A Big Tax Deduction: One of the largest tax deductions available is the amount of interest paid on a mortgage. In fact, a $150,000 home at a 5.50% interest rate can add up to approximately $8,000 in first year's interest. This amounts to a significant savings - effectively reducing the amount of a homeowner's monthly loan payment.

Long-Term Appreciation: Over the last few years, home prices have corrected and become more affordable. While that's good news for potential buyers, it has overshadowed the long-term appreciation of a home's value. The reality is, despite market ups and downs, real estate historically appreciates around 6% per year. Even if you calculate a modest appreciation of 3%, a home purchased today for $150,000 should grow in value to $364,000 over 30 years.

$8,000 Tax Credit: Don't forget, the government is offering an $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers - or for folks that haven't owned a home during the past three years. However, the program is scheduled to end soon. In fact, the Internal Revenue Service recently reminded potential buyers that they must complete their first-time home purchases before December 1, 2009 to qualify for the special credit, which means the last day to close on a home and qualify for the credit is November 30, 2009.

If you're considering purchasing or selling a home, this is an ideal time. Call or email me today to discuss your specific situation and how you can benefit from today's market.

FHA Program Offers Purchase, Renovation Aid

The Federal Housing Administration is encouraging use of its little-known 203(k) loan program.

The 203(k) lets an owner-occupant borrow money for both the purchase and renovation in one loan, and put down only 3.5 percent.

The program requires the use of credentialed contractors and can include cosmetic improvements as well as major renovations like replacing plumbing or electrical. Completing the application process requires patience, says Nancy Hammock, an associate with RE/MAX Properties in Western Springs, Ill.

But in this lending environment, more homebuyers are finding 203(k)s worth the hassle. In fiscal 2008, the government insured about 6,700 of the 203(k) loans. This year, more than 11,000 loans have already been insured, according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

Source: Chicago Tribune, Mary Ellen Podmolik (08/14/2009)

Buying a Home: Buyers Rush to Beat Tax Credit Deadline

Real estate professionals report that first-time home buyers are flooding the sale market, pressed to finalize a deal before the federal government's $8,000 tax credit offer expires on Nov. 30.

Because mortgage approvals, residential inspections, and other steps in the buying process typically take about two months, buyers hoping to take advantage of the incentive will need to have a contract by the end of September.

The new flurry of activity now as house-hunters try to meet the deadline is triggering bidding wars and energizing the property market, which historically is slow at the end of summer. As a result, more homes are getting their full asking price.

Source: Chicago Tribune, Kathleen Lynn (08/14/09)

Real Estate: Strong Gain in Existing-Home Sales

For the first time in five years, existing-home sales have increased for four months in a row, according to the National Association of REALTORS®.

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – rose 7.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.24 million units in July from a level of 4.89 million in June. Sales are 5.0 percent above the 4.99 million-unit pace in July 2008. The last time sales rose for four consecutive months was in June 2004, and the last time sales were higher than a year earlier was November 2005.

Largest Gain in a Decade

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said he is encouraged. “The housing market has decisively turned for the better. A combination of first-time buyers taking advantage of the housing stimulus tax credit and greatly improved affordability conditions are contributing to higher sales,” he said.

The monthly sales gain was the largest on record for the total existing-home sales series dating back to 1999.

“Because price-to-income ratios have fallen below historical trends, there are more all-cash offers. In some recovering markets like San Diego, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Orlando, the demand for foreclosed and lower-priced homes has spiked, and a lack of inventory is becoming a common complaint,” Yun said.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 5.22 percent in July from 5.42 percent in June. The rate was 6.43 percent in July 2008.

"First-Time Buyer Tax Credit is Working"

An NAR practitioner survey showed first-time buyers purchased 30 percent of homes in July, and that distressed homes accounted for 31 percent of transactions. NAR President Charles McMillan said the first-time buyer tax credit is working. “In addition to first-time buyers, we’re also seeing increased activity by repeat buyers. While many entry-level buyers are focused on the discounted prices of distressed homes, they’re also freeing some existing owners to sell and make a move,” he said.

“Realtors are the best resource for consumers in these changing market conditions because the transaction process has become more complex. Since it’s now taking longer to complete a home sale, first-time buyers who want to take advantage of the $8,000 tax credit should try to make contract offers by the end of September,” McMillan said. “Otherwise, they may miss the November 30 closing deadline.”

Inventory Up, Prices Down

Total housing inventory at the end of July rose 7.3 percent to 4.09 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.4-month supply at the current sales pace, which was unchanged from June because of the strong sales gain. Raw inventory totals are 10.6 percent lower than a year ago when the number of unsold homes was at a record.

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $178,400 in July, which is 15.1 percent lower than July 2008. Distressed properties continue to weigh down the median price because they typically sell for 15 to 20 percent less than traditional homes.

Single-Family Homes and Condos

Single-family home sales increased 6.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.61 million in July from a pace of 4.33 million in June, and are 5.0 percent higher than the 4.39 million-unit level in July 2008. The median existing single-family home price was $178,300 in July, which is 14.6 percent below a year ago.

Existing condominium and co-op sales jumped 12.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 630,000 units in July from 560,000 in June, and are 5.9 percent above the 595,000-unit level a year ago. The median existing condo price was $178,800 in July, down 18.9 percent from July 2008.

By Region:

• The Northeast surged 13.4 percent to an annual pace of 930,000 in July, and are 3.3 percent higher than July 2008. The median price in the Northeast was $236,700, down 15.0 percent from a year ago.
• Existing-home sales in the Midwest jumped 10.9 percent in July to a level of 1.22 million and are 8.0 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $157,200, which is 5.9 percent less than July 2008.
• In the South, existing-home sales rose 7.1 percent to an annual pace of 1.95 million in July and are 5.4 percent higher than July 2008. The median price in the South was $164,500, down 7.1 percent from a year ago.
• Existing-home sales in the West slipped 1.7 percent to an annual rate of 1.13 million in July, but are 1.8 percent above a year ago. The median price in the West was $202,300, which is 28.0 percent below July 2008.

Source: NAR

REMINDER: Home Buyer Tax Credit Expires December 1,2009

If you are going to take advantage of this tax credit, you will need to close on your purchase by 12/1/2009.  Please remember that finding a home, getting the contract ratified, and obtaining loan approval will take about 45-60 days.  In order to meet the deadline, you should start looking before the end of September.

For more info:  http://www.federalhousingtaxcredit.com/2009/index.html

Existing-Home Sales Hit 5-Month High

Existing-home sales rose in July to the highest level in five months, although they continue to be well below the numbers from last year at this time, according to the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – increased 3.1 percent in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5 million units from a downwardly revised level of 4.85 million in June. Sales were 13.2 percent lower than the 5.76 million-unit pace in July 2007.

NAR President Richard F. Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said the up-and-down pattern may break soon.

“We hope the new tools in the hands of home buyers from the recently enacted housing stimulus package will spark a sustained sales uptrend in the months ahead,” he said. “Buyers who’ve been on the sidelines should take a closer look at what’s available to them now in terms of financing and incentives. Given some of the inventory on the market, we also strongly encourage buyers to get a professional home inspection.”